Thoughts
Short notes on technology, AI, the economy and the world it runs into.
- The old development model is deadThe whole way we used to build software is dead, and anyone forcing it onto AI agents is lost.
- Social goes small againAs AI floods public feeds, social life moves back to small groups and real places.
- The work that still needs peopleAs AI takes over office work, the scarce worker becomes the one who can show up in person.
- Platforms absorb their neighboursIf your product is a thin layer on someone else's platform, the platform will absorb it.
- Rare earths are the new oilRare earths are becoming the chokepoint oil used to be, and China holds the valve.
- Agents replace middlemen, not platformsAI agents replace the people in the middle, but the platforms at the end keep the money.
- Kids are losing boredomKids who are never bored grow up more anxious, quicker to anger and worse at arguing without a fight.
- Europe slows, then splitsEurope's economy slows first, and the slowdown splits its people.
- China makes everythingChina makes most of the world's things because it organises better than anyone, not because its labour is cheap.
- Extreme weather is the new normalHeatwaves, droughts and floods are no longer surprises, so plan for the bad summer, not the average one.
- AI moves onto your deviceThe AI people use every day will run on their own phones and laptops, not in someone else's data centre.