← Elvio Vicosa

Thought

Europe slows, then splits

Europe's economy slows first, and the slowdown splits its people.

Europe keeps getting older, hotter and more expensive to run.
Retirees take their skills with them, and nobody trains their replacements.
Europe's labour agency already counts more than 2,600 shortages across its member countries.
Heat cuts how much people can work, and energy costs more every year.

Less growth means less to share, and that's when people turn on each other.
Old against young, natives against newcomers, cities against the countryside.
Europe needs migrants for exactly the skills it lacks, and its politics pulls the other way.
Young people see fewer good jobs and higher rents, and stop believing that study or a startup pays off.